Why The EU Will Fail

On January 19, 2012, in Debt and Debt Relief, by Barry Thompson

Europe has long tried to build leverage through a common financial platform. Alas, the resulting European Union has done nothing to solve the differences between the countries. As the EU heads towards a break up, we could all suffer.

Most observers think the Euro Zone is a modern idea. Actually, it came about after the defeat of Hitler and Nazi Germany as people tried to figure out how to prevent a third war. By tying the countries together economically, many thought this would be achieved.

All and all, it is hard to criticize an idea designed to prevent future wars. That being said, the countries fell short in their actual agreement by failing to nail down specific economic requirements. This failure is now leading to the end of the idea.

To see this problem in action, consider Italy and Germany. Italy is beyond corrupt, runs huge deficits and is a complete fiscal disaster. Germany pursues conservative economic philosophies and keeps its debt low in contrast.

What do we see today? Italy is on the edge of default and needs trillions to stay afloat. Who has to pay for it? Germany. As you can imagine, this concept is not very popular in German in either a practical or political perspective.

The simple fact is it is hard to see how the European Union can survive this pending disaster. Why? There are too many parties involved and way too many different interests to get this hammered out.

To understand the scope of the political problem, consider what happened in the States in 2008. Congress barely could agree on TARP to save the banks. Even then, the Fed has to secretly pump in a staggering seven trillion dollars to keep things afloat.

In Europe, there is no such hope or place to do the same thing. To get a TARP like plan, you would have to get 25 countries to agree to it. Not going to happen. Unlike the U.S., there is no federal bank that can slam money into the market.

The real question now is how will the European Union break apart and what will it mean for the world? The top export market for the United States is Europe. When the EU dissolved, demand will drop like mad as well and the U.S. economy will stall.

Ah, but there is another problem. It is well known that the banks in the U.S. have big loans out to their brethren in the EU. If those banks start failing, our banks could go with them. It would be 2008 all over, but on steroids.

If you care about the future of the U.S., you need to learn more about the problem with social security and other forms of government spending.

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